Storm season forecast slightly dialed back

Motorists drive in a heavy rain squall from Hurricane Debby in Ocala on Aug. 5, 2024. [File photo by Bruce Ackerman/Ocala Gazette]

While still anticipating above-normal hurricane activity through the end of November, Colorado State University researchers on July 8 trimmed their forecast for the Atlantic storm season.

The university’s models now project 16 named storms, with eight reaching hurricane status and three becoming major storms with winds of 111 mph or higher. An initial forecast in April and a June update projected 17 named storms, with nine becoming hurricanes and four classified as major storms. The new numbers include three tropical storms — named Andrea, Barry and Chantal — that formed after the June 1 start of the season.

The Atlantic Ocean continues to be a cauldron for storms because of sea-surface temperatures that are warmer than normal, even if they are not as warm as they were last year, according to the university researchers. An average season is considered 14 named storms, with seven hurricanes.

The 2024 season produced 18 named storms, 11 hurricanes and five major hurricanes. Three hurricanes made landfall in Florida.